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I guess we're seeing why they used to call this river a mad elephant.  Very impressive times we're living in right now.  Something to remember for sure.

I say to hell with that pot o' gold.

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 I live 2mi north of Bismarck and my rain gauge only showed 1" of precip last night.  I'm thinking it was much heavier to the west of Burleigh/McLean Counties.   This morning the early show on KFYR t.v. said Glen Ullin received 2" of rain.   That means water down the Heart River and coming into Might Mo just south of Bismarck.  

What's more scary is how much precipitation dropped in the Knife River, etc. and eventually coming into the river system the Corp doesn't want to talk about (downstream of the Dam).   Bismarck could easily see 160k-165k flow even though Garrison Dam remains an outflow of 140k.

I agree with ya, there will be higher outflows from Garrison Dam by next week in the range of 160k and, if more rain comes this far north, 170k.  The positive side to that is the river's level at the Bismarck gauge there seems to be some room to let water flow through.  The level is much lower than they anticipated.

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Garrison inflows now up to 190K cfs....ughhh

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 Well - lots of rain in South central ND and North central SD and no reports.  Now, I find out it has rained 3-4" over the last 7 hrs just East of Sioux Falls, SD on the Big Sioux River that has its confluence at Dakota Dunes just NW of Sioux City and you guessed it, no report.

Omaha is set to see a crest Thursday or Friday and this is what it looks like coming into Eppley Airfield in Omaha.  This is out the Port window landing into a stiff SE wind.  You will see I-680/I-29 interchange underwater 2 miles from the actual river

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SnE3pbxmSaQ

Also, no one is talking about this little problem, debris stacking up behind the flood gates at Gavins Point Dam...HMMM  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0DjxMoSM58

It does not look good for Council Bluffs, IA and will make for an interesting College World Series over the next two weeks.  Hope the levy's hold for everyone.

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Where exactly was this video shot? 104' deep is unbelievably deep for the river.  or is this simply a hole behind falling debris?  Just curious. 

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Fort Peck, MT 6/14 Avg Inflow:79,000 cfs, Avg Release:65,800 cfs
Garrison, ND 6/14 Avg Inflow:180,000 cfs, Avg Release:140,100 cfs
Oahe, SD 6/14 Avg Inflow:156,000 cfs, Avg Release:150,200 cfs
Big Bend, SD 6/14 Avg Inflow:148,000 cfs, Avg Release:151,500 cfs
Fort Randall, SD 6/14 Avg Inflow:162,000 cfs, Avg Release:142,100 cfs
Gavins Point, NE-SD 6/14 Avg Inflow:149,000 cfs, Avg Release:148,400 cfs
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Where exactly was this video shot? 104' deep is unbelievably deep for the river.  or is this simply a hole behind falling debris?  Just curious. 



Moses,
This was shot down below UMary. I was the one that shot the video and talked to the game and fish to check a few depths for us. This is not the channel that is this deep this is a spot right off a point that is swirling very badly. It looks like boiling water so I wanted them to check this particular spot. As they got closer to shore it kept getting deeper and deeper. I don't know what kind of electronics they had in that boat, I'm just going by what they told me. My jaw about hit the ground when he said 104'.


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Holy crap!  Forgive me but where is UMary? 

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I was at the UMARY campus today to look at the water. This river is insane. At a full sprint it would be tuff to keep up with the speed of the floating logs. There are a lot of nice places in water to. I also saw the USGS boat out yesterday checking bridge footings. I also noticed some parts of the river looked blue and others very chocalaty.

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Found UMary.

I can tell you that they are really nervous here in Omaha with the College World Series kicking off this Friday.  We had a small rain last night and the water is pooling downtown by the brand new field.  They have 10 pumps working full time to get the rain water over the flood wall.

Check out this video landing at Omaha's Eppley Airfield -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnE3pbxmSaQ

if that dike around the airfield goes, there will be lots of business for the hotels with all the baseball fans stranded in Omaha.  I need to go open a new bar.....LOL
 

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Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir Bulletin (Updated 16 Jun; 0900 CDT)

Fort Peck (In operation since 1940)
Midnight Elevation
* 2252.3 ft msl
* 24-hr Change (+0.1 ft)

Daily Avg. Inflow
* 71,000 cfs (15 Jun)
* 79,000 cfs (14 Jun)

Daily Avg. Release
* 65,900 cfs (15 Jun)
* 65,800 cfs (14 Jun)

Annual Flood Ctrl & Multi-Use Zone (Elevation)
* 2234 ft msl - 2246 ft msl

Exclusive Flood Ctrl Zone (Elevation)
* 2246 ft msl - 2250 ft msl

Top of Spillway Gates
* 2250 ft msl

Planned Scheduled Releases (Subject to Change)
* Releases have been stepped up to 65,000 cfs.
* Reservoir will use several feet of surcharge storage above the exclusive flood control pool as spillway gates are raised.

Record Pool Elevation (Year)
* 2251.6 msl (1975)

Record Flow (Year)
* 35,000 cfs (1975)

Projected Record Flow (Date)
* 65,000 cfs (Mid June)

Garrison (In operation since 1955)
Midnight Elevation
* 1853.6 ft msl
* 24-hr Change (+0.0 ft)

Daily Avg. Inflow
* 164,000 cfs (15 Jun)
* 180,000 cfs (14 Jun)

Daily Avg. Release
* 140,200 cfs (15 Jun)
* 140,100 cfs (14 Jun)

Annual Flood Ctrl & Multi-Use Zone (Elevation)
* 1837.5 ft msl - 1850 ft msl

Exclusive Flood Ctrl Zone (Elevation)
* 1850 ft msl - 1854 ft msl

Top of Spillway Gates
* 1854 ft msl

River Stage (Bismarck)
* 18.34 (0730 CDT 16 Jun)
* Flood stage - 16 ft
* 18.38 (0716 CDT 15 Jun)

Planned Scheduled Releases (Subject to Change)
* Releases will be stepped up to 150,000 cfs by mid June.
* Spillway gates are being used to pass floodwaters.

Record Pool Elevation (Year)
* 1854.8 msl (1975)

Record Flow (Year)
* 65,000 cfs (1975)

Projected Record Flow (Date)
* 150,000 cfs (Mid June)

Oahe (In operation since 1962)
Midnight Elevation
* 1618.6 ft msl
* 24-hr Change (-0.1 ft)

Daily Avg. Inflow
* 159,000 cfs (15 Jun)
* 156,000 cfs (14 Jun)

Daily Avg. Release
* 150,400 cfs (15 Jun)
* 150,200 cfs (14 Jun)

Annual Flood Ctrl & Multi-Use Zone (Elevation)
* 1607.5 ft msl - 1620 ft msl

Exclusive Flood Ctrl Zone (Elevation)
* 1617 ft msl - 1620 ft msl

Top of Spillway Gates
* 1620 ft msl

River Stage (Pierre)
* 18.89 (0630 CDT 16 Jun)
* Flood stage - 15 ft
* 18.84 (0615 CDT 15 Jun)

Planned Scheduled Releases (Subject to Change)
* Releases have been stepped up to 150,000 cfs.
* Reservoir will peak within a foot of the top of the spillway gates at 1619 feet. 

Record Pool Elevation (Year)
* 1618.7 msl (1995)

Record Flow (Year)
* 59,000 cfs (1997)

Projected Record Flow (Date)
* 150,000 cfs (Mid June)

Big Bend (In operation since 1964)
Midnight Elevation
* 1419.6 ft msl
* 24-hr Change (-0.1 ft)

Daily Avg. Inflow
* 150,000 cfs (15 Jun)
* 148,000 cfs (14 Jun)

Daily Avg. Release
* 148,400 cfs (15 Jun)
* 151,500 cfs (14 Jun)

Annual Flood Ctrl & Multi-Use Zone (Elevation)
* 1420 ft msl - 1423 ft msl

Exclusive Flood Ctrl Zone (Elevation)
* 1422 ft msl - 1423 ft msl

Top of Spillway Gates
* 1423 ft msl

Planned Scheduled Releases (Subject to Change)
* Releases have been stepped up to 150,000 cfs.
* Reservoir will remain essentially level at 1420 feet.
 
Record Pool Elevation (Year)
* 1422.1 msl (1991)

Record Flow (Date)
* 74,000 cfs (1997)

Projected Record Flow (Date)
* 150,000 cfs (Mid June)

Fort Randall (In operation since 1953)
Midnight Elevation
* 1363.6 ft msl
* 24-hr Change (+0.1 ft)

Daily Avg. Inflow
* 152,000 cfs (15 Jun)
* 162,000 cfs (14 Jun)

Daily Avg. Release
* 143,100 cfs (15 Jun)
* 142,100 cfs (14 Jun)

Annual Flood Ctrl & Multi-Use Zone (Elevation)
* 1350 ft msl - 1375 ft msl

Exclusive Flood Ctrl Zone (Elevation)
* 1365 ft msl - 1375 ft msl

Top of Spillway Gates
* 1375 ft msl

Planned Scheduled Releases (Subject to Change)
* Releases will be stepped up to 148,000 cfs by mid June.

Record Pool Elevation (Year)
* 1372.2 msl (1997)

Record Flow (Date)
* 67,000 cfs (1997)

Projected Record Flow (Date)
* 148,000 cfs (Mid June)

Gavins Point (In operation since 1955)
Midnight Elevation
* 1207.6 ft msl
* 24-hr Change (+0.1 ft)

Daily Avg. Inflow
* 153,000 cfs (15 Jun)
* 149,000 cfs (14 Jun)

Daily Avg. Release
* 150,100 cfs (15 Jun)
* 148,400 cfs (14 Jun)

Annual Flood Ctrl & Multi-Use Zone (Elevation)
* 1204.5 ft msl - 1210 ft msl

Exclusive Flood Ctrl Zone (Elevation)
* 1208 ft msl - 1210 ft msl

Top of Spillway Gates
* 1210 ft msl

Planned Scheduled Releases (Subject to Change)
* Releases have been stepped up to 150,000 cfs.

Record Pool Elevation (Year)
* 1209.7 msl (2010)

Record Flow (Date)
* 70,000 cfs (1997)

Projected Record Flow (Date)
* 150,000 cfs (Mid June)

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How are the dikes holding?  Have their pumps been able to divert local runnoff from recent T-storms?  From what I could tell, the city has been able avoid a direct hit from big thunderstorms as of late.

I say to hell with that pot o' gold.

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ggenthusiast Said:
How are the dikes holding?  Have their pumps been able to divert local runnoff from recent T-storms?  From what I could tell, the city has been able avoid a direct hit from big thunderstorms as of late.

,

I assume you mean Omaha?  We have dodged several bullets - storms - but a tremendous amount of water fell on the Big Sioux north of us just two days ago and the rains on the North Platte out west yesterday were rediculous 4"-6".

So far the dike and flood wals built in Omaha before the Dams were constructed shortly after the 52' flood seem to be holding.  They have brought in huge pumps on flatbeds just in case.  Watch Omaha tonight, we are supposed to get storms for the openner of the CWS...Yikes.

For amazing pictures of the flooding below Gavins Point Dam click this link...http://www.leevalley.net/missouririverflood.htm

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Actually, I was referring to Bismarck.  Looks like you folks have your hands full down there too. 

Something tells me that with western ND having an abundance of well paying jobs, and high/dry ground to build on, we will be seeing even more people in the next few years.

I say to hell with that pot o' gold.

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New forecast has Oahe and Big Bend releasing 160KCFS. That will help the backwater effect at Bismarck. 

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html

Man, possibly even folks from SD, and Nebraska will be flocking to the oil fields.  It's inevitable. 

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permo Said:
New forecast has Oahe and Big Bend releasing 160KCFS. That will help the backwater effect at Bismarck. 

Yeah, pretty good amount of inbound water from everything below Garrison, so in order to hold steady, Oahe will have to boost output.

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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Allow me to vent ,I have Sandbagged till my fingers bled ,I have 2 trucks that aren't running, My wife is a nervous wreck., I have mud piled on top of mud. the neighbors pissed off at me and my skimmer pump is plugged up.  OK now for reality- I am Alive, i have a home ,I have a job and I still have a cycle that works so please forgive my bitching because there are so many others out there that have it much much worse than my sorry ass.

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Things looking better at Peck and Garrison, they adjusted release on Oahe, Peck, Bend to blow out all the rain.

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html

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 That inflow from the north, though, is finally reaching Lake Sakakawea.  Today inflow into Garrison Dam is 192,000cfs and the outflow is 150,200cfs.   I was up at the Dam last weekend to see where it all sits; only 12" of freeboard.   That isn't much wiggle room, people!

The ACoE will have to increase the release levels in order to keep up with all of this excess rain & snow melt.  I cannot fathom how they couldn't!  The river level in the Bismarck area is still lower than anyone expected.  There is buffer room to release more if you really consider the logic.   Problem is, does the ACoE use logic??

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So there are a lot of recent articles/blog posts blaming the Corps for not releasing water sooner/faster. Has anyone calculated some predictions for what the average release would have had to be from Garrison in late March, April, or May in order for current releases not to be as high as they are now?

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Quincy05 Said:
So there are a lot of recent articles/blog posts blaming the Corps for not releasing water sooner/faster. Has anyone calculated some predictions for what the average release would have had to be from Garrison in late March, April, or May in order for current releases not to be as high as they are now?

No, but late one night I did the math on CFS which = 7.86 gallons.  At 150,000 cfs (soon to be 160,000 and likely 175,000) we are talking about 71 million gallons per minute, 4.24 billion gallons per hr and 102 billion gallons per day.  That's OFFICIALLY, a B%$#H load of water.  The Corp states that is the equiv. of emptying Gavins Point Dam each day.  I know they have had higher flow rates for two years because we have been unable to waterfowl hunt on the river due to high flows each Fall/Winter 2009-2010.  I guess the flows should have been a little higher.

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I have to agree with you, if you look at the forecast through mid July the best days are only going to be showing a release of 13K CFS more than whats coming in and there are several days where the income is 20-30K more than what being released.  I hate to be the one to say it but the only way to get ahead of the incoming flows is to increase the releases to atleast 165KCFS even if it's just for a few days.  I just don't see how the lake will go down otherwise.  Does anyone know if these forecasts include additional rainfall that may occur?  Its a scary deal.

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nd hunter

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walleyeslammer Said:
I have to agree with you, if you look at the forecast through mid July the best days are only going to be showing a release of 13K CFS more than whats coming in and there are several days where the income is 20-30K more than what being released.  I hate to be the one to say it but the only way to get ahead of the incoming flows is to increase the releases to atleast 165KCFS even if it's just for a few days.  I just don't see how the lake will go down otherwise.  Does anyone know if these forecasts include additional rainfall that may occur?  Its a scary deal.

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html

Think again.

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A link to an article about the Corps and current flooding. Might have to copy and paste it to address bar as I am unsure I linked it correctly.

www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/the_purposeful_flooding_of_americas_heartland.html

Re-post of the Garrison graph showing inflows/outflows/resevoir height.

nd hunter

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permo Said:

walleyeslammer Said:
I have to agree with you, if you look at the forecast through mid July the best days are only going to be showing a release of 13K CFS more than whats coming in and there are several days where the income is 20-30K more than what being released.  I hate to be the one to say it but the only way to get ahead of the incoming flows is to increase the releases to atleast 165KCFS even if it's just for a few days.  I just don't see how the lake will go down otherwise.  Does anyone know if these forecasts include additional rainfall that may occur?  Its a scary deal.

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html

Think again.

This must have changed in the last few days, or else I was looking at it wrong.  Anyways I hopet this chart is correct.  If so I have never been happier to be wrong!!

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The corp has lowered it's projected releases starting July 9!  Check it out: http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html
 

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Sluggo Said:

The corp has lowered it's projected releases starting July 9!  Check it out: http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html
 

Well shiite.  That's gonna cost me $0.50.

Small price to pay to get the water a little lower!

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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It seems like with the corp and nws that the crests are almost always lower than the predicted.

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Think of the weight of the water going through the dam right now...amazing...

1 cubic foot of water hold 7.48 gallons.  One gallon of water weights 8.34 pounds. 

150,000 CFS equals 9.36 million pounds of water going through the dam every second.

CJR

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BringingTheRain Said:
It seems like with the corp and nws that the crests are almost always lower than the predicted.

This is a VERY good thing.  Over estimation creates over preparation......

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permo Said:

BringingTheRain Said:
It seems like with the corp and nws that the crests are almost always lower than the predicted.

This is a VERY good thing.  Over estimation creates over preparation......

crests predicted correctly would be the best though. Probably some situations(maybe not necessarily this flood) where people said the heck with building a dike because the over exaggerated crest made attempting to save their home futile, yet the lower water resulted in minor damage that a dike could've prevented. Or with different areas flooding at the same time, resources could've been given to other areas that actually needed them.

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http://www.swc.nd.gov/4dlink9/4dcgi/GetContentRecord/PB-2003

 from the above link.  Interesting depth profiles along the Missouri.  I'll be the first to admit that I didn't believe the earlier reports of holes this deep, really tough for me to get my hands around the physics of this without the river banks falling in on themselves.  It'll be even more interesting to see if these holes last through the entire event or if they start to fill in as the water levels decline.

Missouri River Bottom Profile

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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p.s.  I really, REALLY, hope all that damn riprap that has been ripped off the shorelines falls into one of these holes.  Otherwise it's going to be a damn minefield out there after all of this.

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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If your looking for small trolling motors, waders, paddles, and oars
I know that Dakota Tackle had a large supply of that stuff

 

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 Looking at that depth chart gives an eary feeling.

IT IS BETTER TO ASK FOR FORGIVENESS THAN ASK FOR PERMISSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I just checked the release from Garisson Dam and it is down to 118,100.  are they still lettign water over the spillway?  Is Bismarck in recovery yet or is the water still too high? 

 Live like you'll die tomorrow,
Die knowing you'll live forever.

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crfisherman Said:
I just checked the release from Garisson Dam and it is down to 118,100.  are they still lettign water over the spillway?  Is Bismarck in recovery yet or is the water still too high? 

Ehhh, where did you get the 118,100 number? 

Today, the releases are supposed to be 120,000 cfs.  Mind you, the gates are anything but a fine-tuned valve.  So the actual number is always going to be +/- a few percent.  But numbers with such specificity that vary from the 3-4 week forecast generally tends to imply the USGS has measured the downstream flow.  Hence my curiousity.

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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Never mind, I found a reference to it.  It was listed as the "daily average flow".  The reason it wasn't a more round number is because there was a shutdown yesterday as they inspected the tunnels. Hence the "average" value for the day is less than the listed value for the day.

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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