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Quincy05's picture
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dakota_native Said:
just heard from my cousin that lives in bismarck, he lives down by the river and said he used his equipment to build a dam for his house, but heard about the new water releases and said he was screwed and that there was no use to try anymore he was going to start looking for somewhere else to stay for him and his family.  not sure how he found out or if it is true, but he said 120,000 by the 3rd

Did he say June 3rd? I think the 120,000 is just a rumor (though a scary very possible rumor) still as this morning was mentioned to be 105,000 starting June 9th.

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I'm guessing clay is tough to find locally and they needs lots of material fast - so maybe they're using sandy soils and relying on buttloads of plastic sheeting to seal the deal?

Ifcity/county engineers are obviously NOT on fishingbuddy, but if there are friends/relatives on buddy, we'd love to hear what's going on as far as big building/plans

I'm listening to 550 am and I'm not exactly getting "an engineer's" persepctive from the very non-engineer types on the air right now

 

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Tim Sandstrom Said:
Yuck.  Already up to .25 to .50 of rain has fell in Montana today.  Or so it seems if you run the storm total loops.

It just never ends.

SOB! Has the weather lost it's mind or what?

 

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dakota_native Said:
just heard from my cousin that lives in bismarck, he lives down by the river and said he used his equipment to build a dam for his house, but heard about the new water releases and said he was screwed and that there was no use to try anymore he was going to start looking for somewhere else to stay for him and his family.  not sure how he found out or if it is true, but he said 120,000 by the 3rd

I can't imagine the stress

 

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Quincy05 Said:

dakota_native Said:
just heard from my cousin that lives in bismarck, he lives down by the river and said he used his equipment to build a dam for his house, but heard about the new water releases and said he was screwed and that there was no use to try anymore he was going to start looking for somewhere else to stay for him and his family.  not sure how he found out or if it is true, but he said 120,000 by the 3rd

Did he say June 3rd? I think the 120,000 is just a rumor (though a scary very possible rumor) still as this morning was mentioned to be 105,000 starting June 9th.

They have used the number of 120,000 cfs in their discussion but it was "120,000 would not be out of the question."

To me, that means, it is a possibility especially if the next few day rain adds horrible kinks to the model runs.  But they will be sure to give some time for prep before they just send it.  I'm sure they will stay with the 105,000 for now but that doesn't mean it couldn't change in a couple day time period. 

To me, stating the number just is a way to "soften" it if indeed they must come to that release.

Rain is dumping mostly into the Ft. Peck region right now but it is moving east.  Not a significant system but any moisture now is not welcomed because of soil saturation.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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Thanks Tim! Appreciate all your updates!

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Tim Sandstrom Said:

Quincy05 Said:

dakota_native Said:
just heard from my cousin that lives in bismarck, he lives down by the river and said he used his equipment to build a dam for his house, but heard about the new water releases and said he was screwed and that there was no use to try anymore he was going to start looking for somewhere else to stay for him and his family.  not sure how he found out or if it is true, but he said 120,000 by the 3rd

Did he say June 3rd? I think the 120,000 is just a rumor (though a scary very possible rumor) still as this morning was mentioned to be 105,000 starting June 9th.

They have used the number of 120,000 cfs in their discussion but it was "120,000 would not be out of the question."

To me, that means, it is a possibility especially if the next few day rain adds horrible kinks to the model runs.  But they will be sure to give some time for prep before they just send it.  I'm sure they will stay with the 105,000 for now but that doesn't mean it couldn't change in a couple day time period. 

To me, stating the number just is a way to "soften" it if indeed they must come to that release.

Rain is dumping mostly into the Ft. Peck region right now but it is moving east.  Not a significant system but any moisture now is not welcomed because of soil saturation.

The Missouri here has continued to rise everyday including today and with the rain it probably will keep rising, I cant believe highway 58 is taking wave action right now. I really hope they are comfortable with their models because I still havent figured out how their inflow math adds up to 113,000 cfs.

I dont go around guessing cup sizes either I just know a nice rack when I see one.

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It actually shows 148,000.  But that seems low too when you do all the addition. 


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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Latest numbers for people:

85,000 cfs = 17 feet

95,000 cfs = 17.76 feet

100,000 cfs = 18.12 feet

110,000 cfs = 18.78 feet

120,000 cfs = 19.41 feet

It will take a significant increase to clip that 20 foot mark it appears.  So I guess that's the good news.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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ok tim build me a map:

95kcfs --- 17.76
100kcfs -18.12
110kcfs - 18.78
120k cfs -19.41

Stay thirsty my friends

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digital radio is slow

Stay thirsty my friends

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where did they hide that ulteig map?

Stay thirsty my friends

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 A person fishing up at the Tail Race said you can feel the ground shake/move when you stand down on the pavement/rocks on the west side of the dam.    Whoa.....

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Tim Sandstrom Said:
It actually shows 148,000.  But that seems low too when you do all the addition. 

Ok I was goin from what we have been seeing on the NBC news the last two nights. That rain west of here dosent look good and only supposed to build in the next few hours.

I dont go around guessing cup sizes either I just know a nice rack when I see one.

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SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:
ok tim build me a map:

95kcfs --- 17.76
100kcfs -18.12
110kcfs - 18.78
120k cfs -19.41

I don't have the data.  Nor the extension with my software to make that map.  The boys in Bis are burning the machines up now making them.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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It never ends folks.  Not what people need to hear.  At all.

HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ACROSS THE SOURIS AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS. THE FIRST EVENT WILL IMPACT THESE BASINS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION BEING SO FAR OUT FROM THE EVENT.

FOR THE SOURIS BASIN...THE FIRST PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE DES LACS BASIN AND BELOW LAKE DARLING. THE CAN DIAN RESERVOIRS HAVE CUT THEIR RELEASES TO APPROXIMATELY 2600 CFS TO AID IN DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS...HOWEVER...THESE RELEASES SCHEDULES MAY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN...THE LATEST RELEASE SCHEDULE FROM THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS IS FOR 85 THOUSAND CFS BY MONDAY MAY 30...INCREASING TO 105 THOUSAND CFS BY MID JUNE. THE CORPS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE CURRENT RESERVOIR AND RIVER CONDITIONS...FORECAST PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO MAKE ANY REVISIONS TO THE CURRENT RELEASE SCHEDULE. THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN COORDINATION WITH NWS BISMARCK BEGAN ISSUING A FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER AT BISMARCK ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO QUANTIFYING THE BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM LAKE OAHE AND THE RATING CURVE OF STAGE TO DISCHARGE AT SUCH HIGH RIVER LEVELS. FOR THOSE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE KNIFE...HEART...APPLE CREEK AND BURNT CREEK SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING FROM MISSOURI RIVER BACKWATER. THE APPLE CREEK IS OF MOST CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING RESULTING FROM RAINFALL RUNOFF AND BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE MISSOURI.

THE LITTLE MISSOURI BASIN WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF TWO INCHES VERIFIES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENT...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE LITTLE MISSOURI AT MEDORA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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Quincy05 Said:
Latest Map:
bismarck.org/DocumentView.aspx

This map is a major improvement/relief for many in southwest Bismarck as it shows many areas protected that were previously thought of as unprotected. Of course, you never know what the water is going to do. Godspeed to those fighting the river and to those outside the "protected" area.

nd hunter

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.

nd hunter

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Did i hear them correctly --- (so i dont have to make the trip at m-nite  tonight)  --- they dont want resources used within the protected area?     My b-law is hauling two loads of sand in as they cant get bags fast enough. 

Stay thirsty my friends

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SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:
Did i hear them correctly --- (so i dont have to make the trip at m-nite  tonight)  --- they dont want resources used within the protected area?     My b-law is hauling two loads of sand in as they cant get bags fast enough. 

That's what it sounded like if I heard them correctly as well. I don't think they will necessarily be turning people away, but it sounded like they wanted people to use discretion and save the sand for those outside the protected areas.

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This story was in the Jefferson City Mo. paper today

The forecast levels for the Missouri River in Jefferson City show the river will be going over the flood stage by this weekend.

And forecasters with the National Weather Service in St. Louis say it could be several days before the river goes back below flood stage.

Meteorologist Ben Miller said the cause for the rise is large volume of rain falling from Montana and down to South Dakota, where dams along the Missouri are located.

“They’ve had anywhere from five to 10 inches of rain in these areas,” he said. “That’s a 500 to 600 percent increase above normal rainfall. They are normally pretty dry year round. The reservoirs at the dams are already full from snow melt. Most reservoirs are within five feet of record stages so they don’t have any extra capacity.”

 

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I wonder if the city of Bismarck could get a super group of construction workers so to speak and build a huge dike yet. If you could get
The National guard
Northern improvement
Mariner construction
The Coal mines equipment operators and equipment
Knife river and Fischer sand and gravel
Just to name a few and get a 20-30 foot monster dike put n right down Washington or something. If they needed clay maybe the could get it from Hebon bricks holdings.
Just a thought.
I really think its going to get much worse than even reported today when they loose control of those two damns spilling over and then the record runoffs hit. It could be a river allot like it used to be when there were no dams..

 

"Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the American Government take care of him;better take a closer look at the American Indian."
Henry Ford

 

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http://www.nd.gov/des/ndelevationlookup/

This might have already been posted.  Allows you to type in an address and see the elevation I believe. 

If god didn't want us to eat animals....he wouldn't have made them out of food.

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Good luck guys, floods are nasty and very hard to predict. Soil issues are going to be the biggest factor. Talked with a friend tonight and they are moving stuff out period. He hauled in dirt and built a dike, but the pressure of the water in the soil is already showing signs of creating peculation points inside the dike and the water is not even threatening.

Hope for the best prepare for the worst!

In my lifetime I have seen fence row to fence row farming and the return of CRP and game to the landscape.Now we face again the prosepect of fence row to fence row again! Sportsman are our own worst enemy in that we fail to look forward and focus to much on the now!

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Why are they not building a dike east/west on 48th ave at 12th St instead of Burleigh Ave on the South end of town? Would this not keep the water from coming North and also protect Imperial Valley Subdivision? It looks to be about the same length of dike as would be needed on Burleigh. Maybe the elevations aren't very accurate on the map. Sounded like there was some talk of it. Hopefully they use some common sense in this process and try to protect as much as possible. Like they say work smarter not harder.

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Farnorth Said:
Tim,
Is it true that every 5,000 cfs adds a foot to the river level?  It seems like a lot.

I have been at the tailrace a few nights during these jumps or increases. It does appear that in close proximity to the dam that your statement holds true. That was exactly my observation that 5,000 in cfs was equaling about another foot in depth (or elevation of water level). I have been watching some of the flooded trees and a concrete pillar and started to notice this trend. As far as down river, no clue. I would imagine that someone was right when they said that the water would lower as it fanned out but as of right now it is still within its vertical banks for the most part so the one foot increases could hold fairly true downstream. But not sure on the specifics, just my personal observation.


This is my BOOMSTICK!!!

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Horizon Middle School has been opened as a shelter and many other places can be opened as well.

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release dates -- coe

May 27 80,000 cfs
May 30 85,000 cfs
June 10 90,000 cfs (targeted)
June 13 100,000 cfs
June 28 105,000 cfs

Stay thirsty my friends

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