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permo's picture
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First of all, 5000 cfs will not raise it half a foot. If that were the case we would be looking at far greater that 20 feet of water at 120.  It takes much more water at this point with the river being very wide and much bigger to raise it a foot than it did when it was as 30,000CFS.  Just like it takes a ton more water now to raise sak a foot than it did when it was almost empty.  

It is great that the city of bismark is finally stepping up and building a dike.  It was sorely needed and I applaud them for this.  It is a tough decision to sacrafice a few to save many but that is what leader ship is for. 

They did say that if you are in the protected area they do not want you sandbagging and diverting those resources away from folks outside of the protected zone.   I have halted my sandbagging operations and am strictly concentrating on preventing basement seepage and sewer backup.   

....it wouldn't be a bad time to get flood insurance if you haven't already.

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I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

 Adn

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Majority of the coverage plans do have a 30 day waiting period before going into effect. Im thinking alot of people who even did call even 3 weeks ago are still going to be in trouble. 

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

 

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KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

Yes it does, but take a look at the information, the proverbial $hit, isn't going to really hit the fan until the end of june when the mountain snowpack runnoff peaks. .  I took my policy out 4 days ago and I am glad I did because the timing looks about right.

Personally I hope they go to 100kcfs sooner than later to make room for all that melt.

The current forecast has Sak at 1853.9 on July 12th..............

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taylorman_55 Said:
Majority of the coverage plans do have a 30 day waiting period before going into effect. Im thinking alot of people who even did call even 3 weeks ago are still going to be in trouble. 

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

May 15th would be the cuttoff for flood insurance. No way will stuff be dry after that (June 15th) . If you are in the dyke you may get lucky. The pumping system hopefully works . Sand is way tougher to hold than packed soil.

Wonderful Reagan quote that says it like it is! "It isn't that Liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so much that isn't so."

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permo Said:
First of all, 5000 cfs will not raise it half a foot. If that were the case we would be looking at far greater that 20 feet of water at 120.  It takes much more water at this point with the river being very wide and much bigger to raise it a foot than it did when it was as 30,000CFS.  Just like it takes a ton more water now to raise sak a foot than it did when it was almost empty.  

It is great that the city of Bismarck is finally stepping up and building a dike.  It was sorely needed and I applaud them for this.  It is a tough decision to sacrifice a few to save many but that is what leader ship is for. 

They did say that if you are in the protected area they do not want you sandbagging and diverting those resources away from folks outside of the protected zone.   I have halted my sandbagging operations and am strictly concentrating on preventing basement seepage and sewer backup.   

....it wouldn't be a bad time to get flood insurance if you haven't already.

Yeah I talked about that in another forum.  If it was 5,000 we'd be in deep trouble.  Up at the tailrace the changes in cfs is much more noticeable but further south, as you mentioned, things spread out much more.

For instance, with the Corps projected numbers yesterday this is what they have:

85,000 cfs = 17 feet 10,000 cfs = .76 ft difference
95,000 cfs = 17.76 feet
100,000 cfs = 18.12 feet 5,000 cfs = .36 ft difference
110,000 cfs = 18.78 feet 10,000 cfs = .66 ft difference
120,000 cfs = 19.41 feet 10,000 cfs = .63 ft difference

So as you can see, the more ball park range is .36 feet per 5,000 cfs.

One thing I'd like to know about these values though is are they in datum ngvd 88 or are in ngvd 29 elevation values?  The difference between the two is 1.34 feet.  I noticed last night on the news that Bismarck is using 88 but the USGS river gage is at 29.  Since the gage 0 for Bismarck is 1618.28 so if you add on the 1.34 feet because of the elevation difference the gage 0 is actually 1619.62.

Just something to remember but I assume Bismarck has done that conversion and been giving the elevation and gage elevations accordingly.


 

 

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SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:

release dates -- coe

May 27 80,000 cfs
May 30 85,000 cfs
June 10 90,000 cfs (targeted)
June 13 100,000 cfs
June 28 105,000 cfs

I have been putting forth a little support to the Corps but these numbers make me take the cap off and scratch my head.  They JUST DID a conference at 4:00 pm and what i heard on the radio was keeping the 105,000 starting June 9th with the threat of 120,000 still very real.

To me, it basically assures Bismarck will be seeing 120,000 cfs but maybe the Corp did some MAJOR number crunching and have things figured out down to the "T".  I'm not sure in that even so.

There is another 1.5 to 3 inches forecast for Montana Sunday night through Tuesday.  We also are slated for about 1 to 2 inches here in North Dakota. 

I do not understand why the change other than the Corp is simply buying time for Bismarck and everyone else downstream.  Or it is a political move to buy time.  I am not sure.

Current Sakakawea level = 1851.80

Current inflow from the Corp = 167,000 cfs

The inflow has crested and evidently the cfs values of 200,000 must not be correct.  Nor was the 180,000 cfs because the Corp has never reported more than that.  Or they are behind on the inflows as far as reporting them to the public.  I don't get it because as I said, Williston has crested and on the decline.  All other gages are too an have been for two days.  So either the numbers were not as big or the cfs somehow changes as it gets closer to Williston.  Confused.....


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
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Tim Sandstrom Said:

permo Said:
First of all, 5000 cfs will not raise it half a foot. If that were the case we would be looking at far greater that 20 feet of water at 120.  It takes much more water at this point with the river being very wide and much bigger to raise it a foot than it did when it was as 30,000CFS.  Just like it takes a ton more water now to raise sak a foot than it did when it was almost empty.  

It is great that the city of Bismarck is finally stepping up and building a dike.  It was sorely needed and I applaud them for this.  It is a tough decision to sacrifice a few to save many but that is what leader ship is for. 

They did say that if you are in the protected area they do not want you sandbagging and diverting those resources away from folks outside of the protected zone.   I have halted my sandbagging operations and am strictly concentrating on preventing basement seepage and sewer backup.   

....it wouldn't be a bad time to get flood insurance if you haven't already.

Yeah I talked about that in another forum.  If it was 5,000 we'd be in deep trouble.  Up at the tailrace the changes in cfs is much more noticeable but further south, as you mentioned, things spread out much more.

For instance, with the Corps projected numbers yesterday this is what they have:

85,000 cfs = 17 feet 10,000 cfs = .76 ft difference
95,000 cfs = 17.76 feet
100,000 cfs = 18.12 feet 5,000 cfs = .36 ft difference
110,000 cfs = 18.78 feet 10,000 cfs = .66 ft difference
120,000 cfs = 19.41 feet 10,000 cfs = .63 ft difference

So as you can see, the more ball park range is .36 feet per 5,000 cfs.

One thing I'd like to know about these values though is are they in datum ngvd 88 or are in ngvd 29 elevation values?  The difference between the two is 1.34 feet.  I noticed last night on the news that Bismarck is using 88 but the USGS river gage is at 29.  Since the gage 0 for Bismarck is 1618.28 so if you add on the 1.34 feet because of the elevation difference the gage 0 is actually 1619.62.

Just something to remember but I assume Bismarck has done that conversion and been giving the elevation and gage elevations accordingly.

 

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still waiting to hear from my cousin who lives down there, him and some of his friends are working hard with his bobcat trying to build a damn to keep the water out of his yard, yesterday he said to hell with the sandbags and started tearing up his yard with the cat, if you are looking for pics or info regarding the flood on facebook they started this page North Dakota flood info center. it has pics and info  hope everyone stays safe and makes it through all of this in bismarck, as for me i will be down in devils lake looking for my third limit if eyes in three days hope the weather didn't push them out of the area

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permo Said:

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

Yes it does, but take a look at the information, the proverbial $hit, isn't going to really hit the fan until the end of june when the mountain snowpack runnoff peaks. .  I took my policy out 4 days ago and I am glad I did because the timing looks about right.

Personally I hope they go to 100kcfs sooner than later to make room for all that melt.

The current forecast has Sak at 1853.9 on July 12th..............

I just heard the flood insurance has to be purchased 30 days prior to the flood alert being made?

(550 am)

 

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guywhofishes Said:

permo Said:

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

Yes it does, but take a look at the information, the proverbial $hit, isn't going to really hit the fan until the end of june when the mountain snowpack runnoff peaks. .  I took my policy out 4 days ago and I am glad I did because the timing looks about right.

Personally I hope they go to 100kcfs sooner than later to make room for all that melt.

The current forecast has Sak at 1853.9 on July 12th..............

I just heard the flood insurance has to be purchased 30 days prior to the flood alert being made?

(550 am)

That's what I am hearing. 

If anyone is interested they need to be on 550 KFYR at 1:00 pm when someone regarding insurance will get on the radio.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
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guywhofishes Said:

permo Said:

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

Yes it does, but take a look at the information, the proverbial $hit, isn't going to really hit the fan until the end of june when the mountain snowpack runnoff peaks. .  I took my policy out 4 days ago and I am glad I did because the timing looks about right.

Personally I hope they go to 100kcfs sooner than later to make room for all that melt.

The current forecast has Sak at 1853.9 on July 12th..............

I just heard the flood insurance has to be purchased 30 days prior to the flood alert being made?

(550 am)

Here is my main thought with this flood insurance. Flood Insurance is for overland flooding only so alot of these people where the water starts coming up through the soil are still going to be SOL. Next question is Flood insurance is for natural disastors but since this flood is being created by a controlled release will that cause and issue. Not really sure. Either way going to be a mess.

Walleye SWAT Team

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Tim Sandstrom Said:

guywhofishes Said:

permo Said:

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

Yes it does, but take a look at the information, the proverbial $hit, isn't going to really hit the fan until the end of june when the mountain snowpack runnoff peaks. .  I took my policy out 4 days ago and I am glad I did because the timing looks about right.

Personally I hope they go to 100kcfs sooner than later to make room for all that melt.

The current forecast has Sak at 1853.9 on July 12th..............

I just heard the flood insurance has to be purchased 30 days prior to the flood alert being made?

(550 am)

That's what I am hearing. 

If anyone is interested they need to be on 550 KFYR at 1:00 pm when someone regarding insurance will get on the radio.

If I heard right here's the deal:
If you bought insurance today, but you don't get damage until 31 days from today, it sounds like it WON'T BE COVERED because the cutoff day is the day the alert was made!

It's not the day the damage was done, it's the day they sound the alert.

I didn't know that - I'll keep it in mind next year in my neck of the woods!

 

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Adam Hamm is going to be on Joel's show in a little bit so be sure to tune in folks if you can.  I will try to keep track of it and write what is said.


 

 

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 Not sounding good for those who didn't have flood insurance before May....  

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Folks, if you are buying insurance you need to be COMPLETELY AWARE that YOU WILL NOT BE COVERED.

So if anyone is selling you insurance they do not know their own business or they are crooked.  I hope they simply are not aware.

But at this time the federal government is saying people will not be covered because of how this flood event is being perceived.

The question is if you can get a refund.  And to me, the bigger question is if you can buy and THEN get a refund if you are NOT covered.  I say this because it would not be good if you bought insurance and couldn't get a refund even after being told later you CANNOT be reimbursed damage.

The other thing is if they do in fact change their tune and allow people to be covered that you DO BUY.

At 1:00 pm people need to be by the radio to here the federal boys talk on this.

Wow, what a mess.


 

 

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Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
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I know all this talk about CFS is fun and very interesting but i just heard some very very disgusting news.  I heard from a very credible source from someone who works very high in a government agency that all this has nothing to do with draw downs and water levels and precipitation.  He said that the reason the CORPS did not draw the big lake down was to protect the interest of the special interest groups to protect the animals along the Missouri and their reproduction.  Bald eagles and other birds that use the shores and sand bars to reproduce.  This will never hit the news as nobody would want to admitt that all this damage is because of the tree hugging libbs that wanted to save their birds. I thought this country was founed on the majority.  These special interest groups now have more power than the majority and that is the reason Bismarck is going through what its going through.  WOW  cant wait to go bird watching.  This made me sick.

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icefreak Said:
I know all this talk about CFS is fun and very interesting but i just heard some very very disgusting news.  I heard from a very credible source from someone who works very high in a government agency that all this has nothing to do with draw downs and water levels and precipitation.  He said that the reason the CORPS did not draw the big lake down was to protect the interest of the special interest groups to protect the animals along the Missouri and their reproduction.  Bald eagles and other birds that use the shores and sand bars to reproduce.  This will never hit the news as nobody would want to admitt that all this damage is because of the tree hugging libbs that wanted to save their birds. I thought this country was founed on the majority.  These special interest groups now have more power than the majority and that is the reason Bismarck is going through what its going through.  WOW  cant wait to go bird watching.  This made me sick.

I won't buy into this because even I will give more credit to the special interest groups than that.  If this is their thought then they are idiots because by not releasing water they BY THEIR OWN HAND are the CAUSE OF THE problem.  Talk about dumb.

The reason the lake and the system in general is in trouble is because we got 6 to 12 inches of rain in four days time (a two week period).  People seem to always think snow is the only thing that matters.  Well, if they want it in a snow perspective that is equal to 72 to 144 inches of snow and it melted two minutes later.

That's why we have water problems.


 

 

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In writing what I did i knew i would get tore apart.  The only questions i have is why was this lake not drawn down months ago then to give it some holding room.  We have had big rains and snow ever since the dam was build. The lake has been very high for over a year now and the were told they cant dump it.  Bottom line is this lake should have had room to hold the melt and a big rain.  In 50+yrs of managing the damn they know what to expect in terms of melt water and rain.  It just makes sence they were told they cant dump it. 

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The dam has never failed us for 60 years of existence.  Never.

Never say never.

Why is that true?  Because large square mile chunks of MT and WY received epic proportions of rain.  I mean epic.  Never ever seen before rains.  Remember, never say never.

As I said, rains of 6 to 12 inches of rain fell.  The most common ratio for snow if it is wet or a good water to snow ratio is 1 inch of rain equals 12 inches of snow.

So that is 72 to 144 inches of snow that fell in MT and WY.  And that fell through a monster square mile region.  Plus, heavy rains fell for ND and SD and ALL THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN ALL THE WAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

That means a lot of water.

The Corp was set to release dang near record releases the way it was to deal with the snow pack.  They would have GLADLY sent more water sooner but when the system DOWNSTREAM is full you CANNOT send water like a drunken sailor.

So when we get smacked with 72 to 144 inches of snow (I am using snow so people put it into perspective) there is LITTLE that can be done.  At that moment it is crunch time and we all know crunch time for folks that build, reside or whatever along a river in a flood plain never, ever win.  Remember, never say never.

Now with all that said, I'd like to see the numbers.  What would make everyone happy?  The Corp to send 40,000 through the dam during the middle of winter?  What would people say if an ice jam would have occurred?  I'm sure the Corp would have been tore apart.

Okay, so lets not send that much during the winter.  Lets just send 40,000 plus during the month of March and April.  Do you guys realize how much room that would have made?  NOT MUCH.  Even if we sent 60,000 it still wouldn't have made much room.  Bismarck would STILL see releases of up to 80,000 with this rain.

It is just unprecedented times since the dam first backed water up.  I do not know what the Corp could have done different.  I really don't.  But the Corp is going to be asked the question and they are going to have to provide an answer.  I bet it won't be much different from what I said.  You simply do not plan for annual rain totals in a two week period of time and you certainly do not plan for 140 to 180 percent of normal snow pack.  They have room factored in for heavy rain events but man, these are not heavy rain events we just had.  They are epic.
 


 

 

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icefreak Said:
In writing what I did i knew i would get tore apart.  The only questions i have is why was this lake not drawn down months ago then to give it some holding room.  We have had big rains and snow ever since the dam was build. The lake has been very high for over a year now and the were told they cant dump it.  Bottom line is this lake should have had room to hold the melt and a big rain.  In 50+yrs of managing the damn they know what to expect in terms of melt water and rain.  It just makes sence they were told they cant dump it. 

 
There are interests that fight a draw down in the spring.   I think the G&
F wants a constant or rising elevation for the spawn and maybe for bird nesting on sand bars on the river?  Then there is/was the Mississippi River flooding that didnt help either but I'm not sure what difference an additional 60,000 cfs would make when it was flowing at 2,000,000 cfs

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icefreak Said:
In writing what I did i knew i would get tore apart.  The only questions i have is why was this lake not drawn down months ago then to give it some holding room.  We have had big rains and snow ever since the dam was build. The lake has been very high for over a year now and the were told they cant dump it.  Bottom line is this lake should have had room to hold the melt and a big rain.  In 50+yrs of managing the damn they know what to expect in terms of melt water and rain.  It just makes sence they were told they cant dump it. 

#1 - I assume that you understand the concept that water runs downhill and that any water released ends up somewhere else.  Eventually it goes in to the lower reaches of the missouri and then into the Mississippi.

#2 - I think you are aware that there has been widespread flooding throughout the system already this Spring from snowmelt and Spring rains.  The anticipation of that is a major reason for holding back water farther up the system.

#3 - Typically, the largest inflows to the Upper Missouri Dams occurs from melting of the Mountain Snowpack and that occurs later (late June-July).  In a normal year, that is a good time to release our water because downstream flow levels have dropped.

#4 - Tim is 100% correct.  The historically heavy rains in MT and ND have created an unusual problem that couldn't really be anticipated.  If you really want them to account for this type of situation, you won't like the fluctuations in Sak because they will need to draw down way lower than the current operating range in order to have a big enough buffer.

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To save bald eagles? Bald eagles dont use the shorline to nest, they find large trees because their nests are massive.We have had large numbers in recent years move into this area and I'm sure they are loving all this overland flooding. Bald eagles dont actually hunt very often and only if they need to, they normally scavenge. They actually enjoy the nasty winters we have had because of the constant supply of dead deer to feed on. Its neat actually in recent years on small dams/lakes in this area if a released fish dies it is more likely to have a bald eagle come get it than a gull. Anyway sounds like a bad attempt to throw the corps under the bus. I have had no prob throwing them under the bus in past years but that explanation dosent really add up.

I dont go around guessing cup sizes either I just know a nice rack when I see one.

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good response tim.  don't see that the corp had many options given high pool level we went into winter with, the tendency not to want to release massive amounts of water during the winter months (for good reason) and downstream flooding going on earlier this spring.  tis what it is and i highly doubt birds had much to do w/ this situation.  not intending to throw icefreak under the same bus he threw the corp under.  i just kind of doubt the info he was given had as big of an impact as he was led to believe. 

Born to hunt and fish... Forced to work!

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There's something that I should point out or at least share my opinion.  I don't know if my opinion is correct but will state it anyway.

I think the Corp would have had control of the snowpack.  We would have had releases high like in 1997 and probably would have had them at a longer duration (remember, they actually had it forecast to release to 50,000 plus cfs before the heavy rains).  Even with longer duration, Bismarck would have had probably no more than 60 or 65,000 cfs flowing through.

What happened to the Corp is the record rainfalls STOLE all the storage.  The snowpack is a very vital and important aspect to the dams but it comes MUCH SLOWER in fashion.  The dams can handle it because it takes weeks to months for the water to make it through the system and that happens in stages throughout the system.  With rain it came now.  And when it comes now, there is no way to account for that.

So what is happening is since the rain stole the storage and we are entering the time period where the snows start to melt and make their way we need to send great quantities of water.  Hence the Bismarck and downstream problems.

I would be furious with the Corp (as Farnorth pointed out in his last bullet) if they managed for crazy amounts of water.  They didn't design the system that way.  If they did, it would completely destroy livelihoods and really, there wouldn't be a soul around the lake because it is so shut down to public access that what would the use of the dam be to people?

Just a very unfortunate series of events.  And most of them were 100% unavoidable.


 

 

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I too am certainly not a Corps fan but will stand in this instance to defend them even though it is as big a waste of time as trying to BLAME someone. Good grief, if they had taken water out all winter to make room for this kind of water they would have been under scrutiny like we have already witnessed since 1988. The majority of the snow pack came unusually late in the year as it was so it was nearly impossible to predict without Divine Intervention in the first place!
Let this blame game end please. It is so childish I don't possess the words to explain how ridiculous it is! IT is what it is,..... so concentrate on living with it. We can't turn back the clock so get on with addressing the situation at hand. I just hate this especially when Joel Heitkamp in his infinite wisdom accurately made the prediction that a sacrificial linching of someone would take place after it was all done. No credit to that swell head should be publicized in any forum as far as I am concerned!
Get informed and get real!

The arrogance of the present is to forget the wisdom of the past.

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RIF
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Joined: 5/24/11
I know all this talk about CFS is fun and very interesting but i just heard some very very disgusting news.  I heard from a very credible source from someone who works very high in a government agency that all this has nothing to do with draw downs and water levels and precipitation.  He said that the reason the CORPS did not draw the big lake down was to protect the interest of the special interest groups to protect the animals along the Missouri and their reproduction.  Bald eagles and other birds that use the shores and sand bars to reproduce.  This will never hit the news as nobody would want to admitt that all this damage is because of the tree hugging libbs that wanted to save their birds. I thought this country was founed on the majority.  These special interest groups now have more power than the majority and that is the reason Bismarck is going through what its going through.  WOW  cant wait to go bird watching.  This made me sick.

I call pure and unabated BS!

If you want actual factual information on the Missouri River management objectives and plan, and subsequent USFWS Biological Opinion on the pallid sturgeon, Northern Great Plains piping plover, bald eagle (subsequently delisted) and Interior least tern, here are some links:

http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/missouririver/#operations

http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/missouririver/

http://www.fws.gov/feature/Mo_river.html

yelowjackt's picture
yelowjackt
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GREENHORN
Joined: 8/31/05

Icefreak is partially correct…one of the objectives along with flood control and barge traffic is conservation. And nesting birds and shoreline birds are a concern when the CORP projects water levels.

However Tim is also correct in the fact that over the last 60 years the CORP has taken t he same approach each spring. The lake was brought down to what the CORP believed was sufficient levels at the time. The massive amounts of moisture in eastern MT have been a game changer and when your precipitation is 200%-400% over average…there are not too many models out there that can predict that.

If projected forecasts had been more accurate then yes the lake would have been drawn down more despite nesting bird habitat…however if the projection of threat is not in the forecast then the nesting bird habitat would take precedence over lake water levels…being a government entity that is just how it works…


"Colorless green ideas sleep furiously"
...People who don’t understand sarcasm are awesome !?!
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 

SHORTHAIRSRUS's picture
SHORTHAIRSRUS
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GREENHORN
Joined: 11/24/04

Blame me --- i asked for the lake to keep the water up and i asked for that lake to be stocked properly.  Both were done - and done nicely.   Our friend la nina has decided to stick around a while -- longer she stays - the worse the dry weather will be.   Some say shes gone  -- -looks like to me she is still leaving.  I think what the coe has done is all what they can do ---  if they overstate like they do down in fargo --- everything will be a -ok.   Houses will flood but it will be minor vs. what this baby would do w/o a dam 

Stay thirsty my friends

RIF's picture
RIF
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Joined: 5/24/11

For all of you 'doubters,' if you have nothing better to do in your spare time, feel free to do some light reading:

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/mmanual/mast-man.htm
 

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