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RIF's picture
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I meant to type "weather doubters' or 'conspiracy theorists'

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Tim Sandstrom Said:
There's something that I should point out or at least share my opinion.  I don't know if my opinion is correct but will state it anyway.

I think the Corp would have had control of the snowpack.  We would have had releases high like in 1997 and probably would have had them at a longer duration (remember, they actually had it forecast to release to 50,000 plus cfs before the heavy rains).  Even with longer duration, Bismarck would have had probably no more than 60 or 65,000 cfs flowing through.

What happened to the Corp is the record rainfalls STOLE all the storage.  The snowpack is a very vital and important aspect to the dams but it comes MUCH SLOWER in fashion.  The dams can handle it because it takes weeks to months for the water to make it through the system and that happens in stages throughout the system.  With rain it came now.  And when it comes now, there is no way to account for that.

So what is happening is since the rain stole the storage and we are entering the time period where the snows start to melt and make their way we need to send great quantities of water.  Hence the Bismarck and downstream problems.

I would be furious with the Corp (as Farnorth pointed out in his last bullet) if they managed for crazy amounts of water.  They didn't design the system that way.  If they did, it would completely destroy livelihoods and really, there wouldn't be a soul around the lake because it is so shut down to public access that what would the use of the dam be to people?

Just a very unfortunate series of events.  And most of them were 100% unavoidable.

Well said Tim. Ditto.

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SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:
Blame me --- i asked for the lake to keep the water up and i asked for that lake to be stocked properly.  Both were done - and done nicely.   Our friend la nina has decided to stick around a while -- longer she stays - the worse the dry weather will be.   Some say shes gone  -- -looks like to me she is still leaving.  I think what the coe has done is all what they can do ---  if they overstate like they do down in fargo --- everything will be a -ok.   Houses will flood but it will be minor vs. what this baby would do w/o a dam 

Like any pissed off woman she cant leave without causing a scene.

I dont go around guessing cup sizes either I just know a nice rack when I see one.

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We will get dry at some point, that's just how the world works.  I just don't see the end until maybe this winter.  I do not like dry winters.  I will settle for a normal one though.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
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The big lake came up .81 feet in 24 hours.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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I just heard on KFYR with Steve Beck. He said flood insurance that wasn't bought over 30 days ago will not pay. Because the flood is already and has been in play for a week now, any policy purchased with in this time will not pay. 

permo Said:

KurtR Said:
I thought flood insurance had 30 day waiting period before it comes into effect?

Yes it does, but take a look at the information, the proverbial $hit, isn't going to really hit the fan until the end of june when the mountain snowpack runnoff peaks. .  I took my policy out 4 days ago and I am glad I did because the timing looks about right.

Personally I hope they go to 100kcfs sooner than later to make room for all that melt.

The current forecast has Sak at 1853.9 on July 12th..............

IT IS BETTER TO ASK FOR FORGIVENESS THAN ASK FOR PERMISSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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 Sorry to repost what has already been said. i forgot to refresh my screen.

IT IS BETTER TO ASK FOR FORGIVENESS THAN ASK FOR PERMISSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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So I live in south Bismarck and my house is at a low elevation but am about a mile inside the boundaries of the protective dike.  Should I be sandbagging or should I trust the dike will protect me?

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Sluggo Said:
So I live in south Bismarck and my house is at a low elevation but am about a mile inside the boundaries of the protective dike.  Should I be sandbagging or should I trust the dike will protect me?

I would have to believe you will be good.  Put it this way, if the city dike fails I don't know if sandbagging would help you much anyway.

I would work on suring up sump pump issues, get plugs for all drains, shut offs for all water lines coming in (washer, dish washers, fridges, etc).


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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I have a friend who fought off the Red for 3 weeks with a ring dike and he won. Or so he thought. The result of 3 weeks of water pressure against his basement walls caused them to crack/buckle. He later wished he had just moved stuff out, filled his basement with clean water and re-sheet rocked when it dried out.

If you ring dike you have an advantage if you can get a lot of space between your house and the dike (of course this forces you to build a bigger dike in the end).

Consider adding multiple deep dewatering systems (8 foot deep sumps) to keep the pressure off your basement.

Use plastic sheeting extending out away from the dike (on the OUTSIDE) as far as is practical to force the percolation to travel that much farther to make it under and into your yard. It won't eliminate it but will slow it down.

If you lose power, you're sunk. That's the saddest losses I've seen here in the east - all that work and they'd have made it with power, but their generator puked or lost power from the grid and didn't have generators.   : (

 

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 I live south of Bismarck in a low area. We are clearing every thing and walking away. I am hoping for the best and expecting the worse. Luckily I have a place to go and storage. Life goes on. 

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BDub Said:
 I live south of Bismarck in a low area. We are clearing every thing and walking away. I am hoping for the best and expecting the worse. Luckily I have a place to go and storage. Life goes on. 

Good luck man.

I dont go around guessing cup sizes either I just know a nice rack when I see one.

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Just went across the Missouri on 85 at willistonWow!!went across it 6 days and it was not flowing like it is now.the water is really moving on the sw side of 85 not in the main river channel,but after you cross the bridge

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The final word is buy insurance and then see what happens.  That's sort of obvious.

However, the common answer is they will be considering this a flood in progress event and coverage will not be granted or I guess rewarded.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:
Blame me --- i asked for the lake to keep the water up and i asked for that lake to be stocked properly.  Both were done - and done nicely.   Our friend la nina has decided to stick around a while -- longer she stays - the worse the dry weather will be.   Some say shes gone  -- -looks like to me she is still leaving.  I think what the coe has done is all what they can do ---  if they overstate like they do down in fargo --- everything will be a -ok.   Houses will flood but it will be minor vs. what this baby would do w/o a dam 

Remember last summer when fishermen were happy the lake was so high? Oofta. How times change.

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Co-worker just added up the three gages and there is 144,000 coming into the lake still.  Definitely dropping hard but I imagine there will be a brief rise later with the Billings water making its way.  Plus start to stay pretty consistent at a level for a bit.  Guess that is the good news.  Bad news is there is pretty good confidence for rain of 1 to 2 inches for Western ND.  Eastern MT as well.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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I think they are going to 90,000 June 4th now.  I can't keep up.  But to me, this makes complete sense.

Was wondering why they did the change yesterday.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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simmsjs Said:
I just heard on KFYR with Steve Beck. He said flood insurance that wasn't bought over 30 days ago will not pay. Because the flood is already and has been in play for a week now, any policy purchased with in this time will not pay. 

WE have had the radio on all day too, there is no factual information on when the cutoff date is at this point.  It isn't worth arguing about, but I figured when floods are coming budgets go out the window....worth a $300 gamble.

Regardless, I am glad the corps is increasing releases earlier.....lets the get the water moving as soon as the dikes a built.  

On another note, I am amazingly unimpressed with the selfish behavior of many folks within the "safe zone".......get out of the way and stop hoarding sandbags, let the people that need them get them quicker and trust the dike being built to protect you.  

Break time is over....back to flood fighting.

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Keep up the fight permo.  Routin' for all of you guys down there!


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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To play devils advocate.......

If I owned a property in southwest Bismarck that was in the "protected zone", your darn right I'd be building a ring duke around it. You have absolutely no idea if a levee is going to hold with 105,000 cfs of rushing water barreling at it. Hell no am I going to take that chance. I would not put myself in the situation of looking at my demolished home and having to tell live with not doing everything I could to save it. Protecting your property is not selfish.
 

permo Said:

simmsjs Said:
I just heard on KFYR with Steve Beck. He said flood insurance that wasn't bought over 30 days ago will not pay. Because the flood is already and has been in play for a week now, any policy purchased with in this time will not pay. 

WE have had the radio on all day too, there is no factual information on when the cutoff date is at this point.  It isn't worth arguing about, but I figured when floods are coming budgets go out the window....worth a $300 gamble.

Regardless, I am glad the corps is increasing releases earlier.....lets the get the water moving as soon as the dikes a built.  

On another note, I am amazingly unimpressed with the selfish behavior of many folks within the "safe zone".......get out of the way and stop hoarding sandbags, let the people that need them get them quicker and trust the dike being built to protect you.  

Break time is over....back to flood fighting.

nd hunter

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The thing is, if a earthen dike doesn't hold how will sandbags.  A lot of wonder is about the sandy soil and bag dikes.  Guess we'll find out because the high water is going to be around.


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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I definately understand both sides of the argument. If the earthen dike and a personal ring dike doesn't hold, no amount of sandbags outside the protection zone will hold either so they wouldn't have needed them anyways.

Tim Sandstrom Said:
The thing is, if a earthen dike doesn't hold how will sandbags.  A lot of wonder is about the sandy soil and bag dikes.  Guess we'll find out because the high water is going to be around.

nd hunter

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Yes, its Selfish!
Those resources should be ONLY for those who's property is outside the levees. If half the man-hours people placed in "protecting" their own property within the city dikes was expended helping the "the outsiders" this flood wouldn't be that big of deal.
The reality is the ring dikes will not help if the dikes collapse anyways. The 20-21ft flood is around 2.to 2.5 feet of water on the main floor of nearly all homes in south Bismarck.
Be less self centered and lend a hand to those who are in real danger outside the city/county dikes.  Try filling sand bags for them!

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As stated before, if the levees collapse....peoples ring dikes outside the zone won't hold either no matter what. I understand both sides of the argument. Truth be told we have absolutely NO idea of what is going to happen and calling someone out as selfish for doing everything they can to protect their property is not right. 

Westerneagle Said:
Yes, its Selfish!
Those resources should be ONLY for those who's property is outside the levees. If half the man-hours people placed in "protecting" their own property within the city dikes was expended helping the "the outsiders" this flood wouldn't be that big of deal.
The reality is the ring dikes will not help if the dikes collapse anyways. The 20-21ft flood is around 2.to 2.5 feet of water on the main floor of nearly all homes in south Bismarck.
Be less self centered and lend a hand to those who are in real danger outside the city/county dikes.  Try filling sand bags for them!

nd hunter

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Tim Sandstrom Said:
Co-worker just added up the three gages and there is 144,000 coming into the lake still.  Definitely dropping hard but I imagine there will be a brief rise later with the Billings water making its way.  Plus start to stay pretty consistent at a level for a bit.  Guess that is the good news.  Bad news is there is pretty good confidence for rain of 1 to 2 inches for Western ND.  Eastern MT as well.

Billings Montana just had over 3 inches and is flooding along the yellowstone that montana water is comming to bismarck.   Floods are no fun I have 2 dams to rebuild from this spring plus a deep well to pull  I feel for all of the flood victums but I am 160 miles from you guys  He does answer prayers

The best democrat platform a Republican can stand on it a manure pile

drug test everyone on welfare

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I just checked 2 websites including weather.com and it shows 0 inches of rain for Billings in the past 24 hours.  Where did you hear/see 3 inches?

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dreamsofourfathers Said:
As stated before, if the levees collapse....peoples ring dikes outside the zone won't hold either no matter what. I understand both sides of the argument. Truth be told we have absolutely NO idea of what is going to happen and calling someone out as selfish for doing everything they can to protect their property is not right. 

Westerneagle Said:
Yes, its Selfish!
Those resources should be ONLY for those who's property is outside the levees. If half the man-hours people placed in "protecting" their own property within the city dikes was expended helping the "the outsiders" this flood wouldn't be that big of deal.
The reality is the ring dikes will not help if the dikes collapse anyways. The 20-21ft flood is around 2.to 2.5 feet of water on the main floor of nearly all homes in south Bismarck.
Be less self centered and lend a hand to those who are in real danger outside the city/county dikes.  Try filling sand bags for them!

Still self centered,  Go volunteer to help the "outsiders". If the plan works for the city folks, how will those who were a barrier in both restricting access in time and resources going to feel with all those sandbags in their Dry yard while others outside the ring of protection lose all? 
Give them a chance!
TIME is not on their side. Help them by staying out of the sandbag fill lines.
Your stealing time and resources from them, which is selfish!

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Sluggo Said:
I just checked 2 websites including weather.com and it shows 0 inches of rain for Billings in the past 24 hours.  Where did you hear/see 3 inches?

That rain was a few days ago, a one day record, at any rate that water has a few days before it gets down there and it is still raining in many places in MT and is supposed to continue to.

I dont go around guessing cup sizes either I just know a nice rack when I see one.

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Sluggo Said:
I just checked 2 websites including weather.com and it shows 0 inches of rain for Billings in the past 24 hours.  Where did you hear/see 3 inches?

It's not looking good to the west again, here's billings weather outlook.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/byz/

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?minlon=-117.05&maxlon=-102.45&minlat=43.8&maxlat=49&mapwidth=354&site=byz&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=218&map.y=102

Garrison is only two feet from running over, was going up a foot every two days but went up a foot in one today. Mainly due to the close to 200,000 cfs that had been going in the last couple days when the corps said it was only 113.000 cfs. 113,000 cfs doesn't take Williston up to 28 feet! Anyways that stuff is filling her up fast now as you
can see here.

And Peck didn't like being choked down to 10,000cfs so now they need to dump her hard, something like 50,000 cfs now and much more to come when she spills over.


So now you have a record rain event in the Billings area 3 days ago headed our way, Peck is going to spill over about the same time Garrison does. Plus another major rain event this coming couple days. So both systems will be at fool pool in less than 7 days and then the weather out west is going to warm up fast in June and those record snow packs are going to come down the pipe fast and hard to what is basically an undammed river system just like pre dam days.
Man I feel sorry for the folks along the entire river system, there's going to be so much more water than most are expecting. I still don't understand how the Corps couldn't figure out what so many outdoors man on this site seen coming months ago, even before Montana's big rain events these past weeks.

 

"Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the American Government take care of him;better take a closer look at the American Indian."
Henry Ford

 

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And this is just one of the little rivers that is headed our way.

Musselshell river 5/27/11 video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpoxj5RHSro

 

"Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the American Government take care of him;better take a closer look at the American Indian."
Henry Ford

 

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